New York Times readers awoke Monday morning to disheartening news. The lead story, top right above the fold, three weeks out from the November 8 midterm elections was headlined, “G.O.P. Gains Edge in Poll as Economy Sways Voters”, with a subhead of “Democrats See Drop in Independents and Women.” Perhaps the most brutal news in the New York Times/Siena poll was the shift by independent women from supporting Democrats by 14 points in September to supporting Republicans by 18 points. Republicans lead the generic Congressional preference 49-45 percent a switch from September when Democrats led by one point.
Democrats have campaigned hard in recent months on abortion, yet the poll shows only five percent saying abortion is their most important issue with a combined 44 percent saying the economy inflation is their top concern. Among women, abortion is named by nine percent while the economy/inflation is tops at a combined 38 percent.
Not in the lede was Donald Trump topping Joe Biden among likely voters in the poll’s 2024 presidential preference question, 45 to 44 percent even though the poll also shows Trump’s favorable/unfavorable at 43/52.
Biden’s approve/disapprove is 39/58. Among independents Biden’s approve/disapprove is 33/63.
Right track/wrong track is 24/64.
Cross tabs at this link. “Methodology – The New York Times/Siena College poll of 792 registered voters nationwide was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Oct. 9 to 12, 2022. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.0 percentage points for registered voters and +/- 4.1 percentage points for the likely electorate.”
Tweets from reporters highlighting the poll:
“The biggest shift came from women who identified as independent voters. In September, they favored Democrats by 14 points. Now, independent women backed Republicans by 18 points”
— Abby D. Phillip (@abbydphillip) October 17, 2022
Republicans gain strength in generic ballot, leading Democrats 49% to 45%, a change from last month when Democrats held a 1-point lead in @nytimes @SienaResearch poll. @ShaneGoldmacher https://t.co/GinN18X8ry
— Peter Baker (@peterbakernyt) October 17, 2022
New NYT poll: Biden job approval 39%. GOP +4 in generic ballot. Most important issue: Economy/inflation 44% Abortion 5%. Trump 45 Biden 44 in 2024 matchup. https://t.co/IJlyEXz8vH
— Byron York (@ByronYork) October 17, 2022
Republicans enter the final weeks of the midterms with a narrow but distinctive advantage as the economy and inflation have surged as the dominant concerns, a New York Times/Siena College poll has found. via @ShaneGoldmacher https://t.co/PYqmH6oK7C
— Katie Glueck (@katieglueck) October 17, 2022
The Times notes that rounding makes the GOP lead four percent when it is closer to three percent. With the dramatic shift in momentum to Republicans, that may be a distinction without a difference come election day.
Likely voters prefer GOP candidates over Democratic candidates by 49% to 45% in a new @nytimes poll. But that 4-point lead is based on rounded figures. The unrounded figures are 48.51% vs. 45.47%, which is more like a 3-point lead. Good explainer here: https://t.co/uqtKzUe9MS
— John Gramlich (@johngramlich) October 17, 2022